Nigeria Releases 2026 Climate Forecast: Expect Uneven Rain, Heat, and Extended Dry Spells

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has unveiled its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), warning of a year marked by uneven rainfall distribution, higher temperatures, and prolonged dry spells across various regions.

Presented at the NAF Conference Centre in Abuja on February 10, the forecast indicates a predominantly neutral global climate pattern. However, officials stressed that this does not equate to low risk, as significant local climate extremes are still expected.

Key Projections & Risks

The 2026 outlook forecasts an early onset of rains in the South and Middle Belt, but a late start in Borno State. While most areas will receive normal annual rainfall, above-normal levels are predicted for parts of the North, South-East, coastal regions, and the Federal Capital Territory. Conversely, sections of the North-West and South-West may see below-normal rainfall.

A major concern is the prediction of a prolonged August break, particularly affecting Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo State. This extended dry period could strain urban water supplies and disrupt farming cycles. The report also highlights the likelihood of mid-season dry spells and warmer-than-average day and night temperatures nationwide, raising risks of heat stress and increased energy demand.

Call for Action and Planning

Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, emphasized that climate intelligence must form the backbone of national planning. He described the SCP as a critical “science-to-action” document, noting that reliable weather data is essential for aviation safety, agricultural productivity, and infrastructure resilience.

NiMet’s Director-General, Professor Charles Anosike, warned that climate variability is a direct threat to livelihoods and economic growth. He revealed that the agency is integrating Artificial Intelligence into its forecasting models to enhance accuracy and is expanding digital advisory services to help farmers and local governments apply climate information effectively.

Authorities urged all sectors—especially agriculture, aviation, water resources, and health—to use the 2026 SCP to guide decisions, stressing that preparedness is vital to mitigating climate-related disruptions in the coming year.