President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emerged from their White House meeting Wednesday with a unified front on Iran—but significant disagreements remain about whether Tehran can ever be trusted to negotiate in good faith.
The two leaders agreed to intensify economic pressure on Iran, with a specific focus on its oil exports to China, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the discussions. The strategy represents an escalation of the maximum pressure campaign even as diplomatic channels remain open.
The China Factor
More than 80 percent of Iranian oil exports currently flow to China. If Beijing can be persuaded—or compelled—to reduce those purchases, the economic stranglehold on Tehran would tighten considerably. U.S. officials believe this pressure could fundamentally shift Iran's calculus and push it toward meaningful concessions on its nuclear program.
"We agreed that we will go full force with maximum pressure against Iran, for example, regarding Iranian oil sales to China," a senior U.S. official said.
The mechanism for this pressure is an executive order Trump signed ten days ago, which empowers the secretaries of State and Commerce to recommend tariffs of up to 25 percent on any country conducting business with Iran. Such tariffs on China, however, would introduce significant friction into an already strained relationship—potentially complicating the flow of vital rare earth magnets and threatening a planned April summit in Beijing.
Parallel Tracks: Pressure and Diplomacy
The renewed economic offensive is proceeding alongside active diplomatic engagement. On Tuesday, Trump's advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to meet Iranian representatives in Geneva for a second round of negotiations. Earlier this week, Witkoff conveyed messages through the Omani foreign minister; the U.S. now expects an Iranian response at the Geneva meeting.
But the White House meeting revealed a fundamental divergence between the two allies. Netanyahu told Trump that reaching a viable deal with Iran is impossible, arguing that even if an agreement were signed, Tehran would not abide by its terms.
Trump's response was more measured. According to a U.S. official, the president told Netanyahu: "We'll see if it's possible. Let's give it a shot."
Assessing the Odds
In recent days, Trump asked Witkoff and Kushner for their assessment of reaching a deal with Iran. They acknowledged the historical difficulty—if not impossibility—of securing a satisfactory agreement with Tehran. But they also reported that, so far, the Iranians are "saying all the right things."
Their strategy is straightforward: continue negotiations while maintaining a hard line. If Iran agrees to terms they consider satisfactory, they will present Trump with the option to decide.
"We are sober and realistic about the Iranians. The ball is in their court. If it is not a real deal, we will not take it," a U.S. official said.
Another official was far less optimistic, placing the chances of mutual agreement at "zero."
The Geneva Backchannel
The diplomatic back-and-forth has not been without controversy. Iranian journalist Ali Gholhaki claimed on X that Witkoff's messages included a U.S. proposal for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment for three to five years, after which it would allegedly be permitted to enrich to very low levels. The purported proposal also included removing 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium from the country—a demand Tehran has reportedly rejected.
A U.S. official flatly denied that such a proposal was presented.
Regional Calculations
While Iran remains a major oil producer, global markets are currently more concerned about potential regional disruptions than supply shortages. Any Iranian retaliatory action could interrupt the flow of oil from other producing nations, creating instability that neither Washington nor its allies want.
For now, the U.S. is pursuing a dual-track approach: ratcheting up economic pressure while keeping the door to negotiations cracked open. Whether that door swings wide or slams shut may depend on what happens in Geneva next week—and whether China's appetite for Iranian oil can be tempered by the threat of American tariffs.
The ball, as the official said, is in Tehran's court.
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