Nigeria has once again failed to meet its crude oil production quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), extending its run of shortfalls to five consecutive months, according to the latest monthly report from the cartel.
Data released by OPEC on Wednesday shows that Nigeria’s output declined to 1.42 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.43 million bpd in November. This represents a deficit of 80,000 bpd compared to the country’s assigned production target of 1.5 million bpd.
OPEC noted that the figures were sourced through direct communication with Nigerian authorities. Despite the shortfall, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s top oil producer, ahead of Libya, which recorded 1.37 million bpd.
Discrepancy Between Direct and Secondary Data
In a contrasting assessment, secondary sources cited by OPEC—including energy intelligence platforms—estimated Nigeria’s December production at 1.5 million bpd, marking a 1.35% increase from November’s 1.48 million bpd.
The persistent underperformance highlights ongoing challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, which continues to grapple with issues such as crude theft, pipeline vandalism, aging infrastructure, and underinvestment.
Oil Prices Rise Amid Regional Tensions
Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose in global markets on Wednesday amid concerns over potential supply disruptions from Iran. Growing fears of a U.S. military strike and possible retaliation by Tehran have contributed to market volatility, underscoring the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical instability in key producing regions.
The continued production deficit poses a significant revenue challenge for Nigeria, which depends heavily on oil exports to fund its budget and stabilize its currency. Efforts to ramp up output and meet OPEC commitments remain a pressing priority for the federal government as it seeks to navigate both domestic production constraints and an unpredictable global oil landscape.
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