Israel's Somaliland Gambit: A Geopolitical Realignment

Israel has formally recognized the breakaway territory of Somaliland, establishing mutual embassies in a move analysts describe as a calculated geopolitical strike rather than a symbolic diplomatic gesture. The decision fundamentally alters the strategic landscape of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.

The core of the strategy is geographic. Somaliland controls a coastline adjacent to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a global maritime chokepoint. For years, Iran has sought influence in this corridor, using proxies to threaten shipping lanes critical to Israel and the West. Israel's establishment of a formal partnership with Somaliland provides a strategic foothold, potentially enabling intelligence sharing and maritime security cooperation that directly counters Iranian ambitions in the region.

The move also represents an ideological counterweight in a region contested by other Middle Eastern powers. Turkey has invested heavily in Somalia, promoting a political Islamist influence. In contrast, Somaliland has positioned itself as a stable, democratic entity. Israel's alignment draws a clear line, supporting a governance model that rejects the expansion of influence by Turkey and its ally Qatar under a neo-Ottoman or Muslim Brotherhood banner.

Domestically, the enthusiastic reception in Somaliland's streets, with citizens waving Israeli flags, suggests the partnership is viewed as a voluntary alignment with a nation perceived as a model of self-reliance and institutional strength. This recognition effectively extends the logic of the Abraham Accords into East Africa, building a coalition of pragmatic states united by shared security and economic interests, fundamentally reshaping the regional map through concrete action rather than diplomatic rhetoric.